Where to begin?

Phew. A very busy couple of weeks at the copy-churning factory, so it's been a while since I've been here. Thankfully, nothing much has happened in the world since September 22.  Sigh...let's do this in multiple posts, shall we?

First up, the U.S. presidential race. Neither of the two debates between Barack Obama and John McCain have produced much compelling material. Obama, having recognized after the primaries that his biggest task in the general election was to allay concerns about his vague ideas and inexperience, has dialed down the big-idea rhetoric and become a policy wonk. He no longer sends people's hearts into their throat, but he's been more or less successful at answering the question, what does "change" look like. In this respect, he's outflanked an increasingly bizarre and attack-oriented McCain campaign. At the most recent town hall debate, McCain spent far too much time laying into Obama and not nearly enough talking up his own agenda. At his age and with his POW experience, McCain gives away many physical characteristics to Obama, differences that are exacerbated on television and are even more pronounced when he launches into petty attacks. The body-language deficit and the bitterness make him appear exactly like the out-of-touch old man that Obama's tried to portray him as. Meanwhile, McCain's attempts to smear him as a dangerous novice seem less and less credible the more Obama spits out mind-numbingly boring minutiae about credit card defaults.

These factors, plus the fact that the economic crisis has shifted the election issues onto turf that's more comfortable for Obama than McCain, have created significant momentum for the Democrat. He's leading by five or six points in national polls (a blowout by presidential election standards) and has gone ahead in swing states like Pennsylvania. The narrative is starting to form in the media, too, with even some Republican observers all but conceding that the race is over. 

But there is still one important factor to consider, one thrown out rather bluntly by CNN pundit David Gergen after the town hall debate. After listening to pretty much every member of the "Best Political Team on Television" declare Obama the next president, Gergen pointed out - as if everyone had forgotten - that Obama is black. It's funny, because I had been impressed and relieved at how the emphasis on his racial makeup had diminished. Yet I, like so many people, I think, won't fully believe the Barack Obama story until he's voted into office. We all know that a certain subset of American voters will not vote for him simply because of his mixed racial identity. We won't know until next month how big that group is.